A human-signed result with its qualifications and source evidence attached. Inspect the relation type before treating the contracts as equivalent.
PAIRS MONITOR PAUSEDREAD-ONLY ANALYTICSKalshi · Polymarket
RECEIPTS,
NOT PROMISES.
Compare the settlement rules before treating two markets as equivalent. Sonar Verify compares supported CPI and FOMC contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket, records the qualifications, and keeps the evidence behind a human-signed result inspectable.
CPI + FOMC · TWO VENUES · NO ARBITRARY MARKETS
ACCESS REQUEST · NO PAYMENT COLLECTED · NO EXECUTION · NO CUSTODY
01 · HOW IT WORKS
Four steps. An inspectable record.
- 01
SUBMIT
Submit one Kalshi contract URL and one Polymarket contract URL.
- 02
COMPARE
The engine compares supported settlement specifications and records a proposal or abstention.
- 03
REVIEW
A reviewer examines the evidence and decides whether to sign the result.
- 04
INSPECT
Inspect the contract versions, qualifications, source clauses, and event history. Rules changes can make a signed result not current and require a new verification.
US CPI · Headline, seasonally adjusted CPI-U month-over-month binary thresholds using the initial BLS release.
FOMC · Scheduled no-change or downward target-range upper-bound changes with supported fallback rules.
02 · LIVE PAIRS
Pairs monitor paused.
The historical record remains available while the terminal is paused.
PAIRS MONITOR
PAUSED| EVENT | Kalshi | Polymarket | NET EDGE | RULE MATCH | STATUS |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NO ACTIVE PAIRS | |||||
PAIRS MONITOR PAUSED · NO ACTIVE PAIRS SINCE 2026-09-16 · HISTORICAL RECORD AVAILABLE
READ THE HISTORICAL RECORD >>03 · THE RECEIPT
The arithmetic stays attached.
Receipt anatomy shows where observed prices, fees, slippage, and timestamps belong. This illustration contains no live opportunity or performance result.
DEMO DATA · SYNTHETIC
EDGE MATH · RECEIPT ANATOMY
- Kalshi YES costObserved book snapshot
- —
- +Polymarket NO costObserved book snapshot
- —
- =COMBINED COSTSum of both legs
- —
- −FEES · BOTH VENUESIncluded in net edge
- —
- −SLIPPAGE ESTIMATEModelled at observed depth
- —
- =NET EDGEPayout less combined cost, fees, and slippage
- —
SIGNAL TIMELINE
- DETECTED
A book observation is recorded.
- VALIDATED
Recorded rules and cost checks accompany the observation.
- ALERTED
Delivery evidence belongs with the receipt.
- OUTCOME
A recorded outcome belongs in the historical record.
Illustration only. Values and timestamps are unavailable.
04 · ACCURACY RECORD
A historical record, open to inspection.
These counters come from delivered alerts, recorded outcomes, and venue settlement evidence. They do not represent returns or future performance.
Terminal paused since 2026-09-16; historical record
ALERTS FIRED3DELIVERED, DISTINCT ALERTS
OUTCOMES3RECORDED ALERT OUTCOMES
SETTLED PAIRS4COMPLETED WITHOUT CONFLICT
CONFLICTS0VENUE SETTLEMENT CONFLICTS
RECORD UPDATED · 2026-09-16 20:12:08Z
READ THE FULL RECORD >>05 · SONAR VERIFY
A result with its conditions attached.
Matching titles can hide different thresholds, observation windows, or fallback rules. Verify compares the recorded settlement specifications and preserves the source evidence. Ambiguous evidence stays unresolved.
A machine proposal awaits human review. It is not a verified result, and no certificate has been issued.
The earlier signed result is no longer current. Its evidence remains readable while a new verification is required.
EXAMPLE CERTIFICATE · DEMO DATA · SYNTHETIC
CONDITIONAL EXACTThe same bet, under stated conditions.
This synthetic CPI example has one delayed-release divergence condition. It demonstrates the certificate format and is not a live market certification.
- RELATION
- CONDITIONAL EXACT
- DIVERGENCE CONDITIONS
- 1
- MAX PAYOFF DIFFERENCE
- 1.00
REQUEST A SYNTHETIC DEMO →
Available in the local synthetic demo after beta sign-in.
06 · MARKETGRAPH
Published relations across venues.
Published relations connect contract versions with their recorded qualifications. Request access to inspect the evidence in MarketGraph.
MARKETGRAPH · PUBLISHED RELATIONS
4 PUBLISHED| RECORD | COUNT | ACCESS |
|---|---|---|
| Published relations | 4 | REQUEST ACCESS >> |
AGGREGATE COUNT · CERTIFICATE DETAILS AVAILABLE AFTER SIGN-IN
07 · PAID PILOT PLANNED
Inspect the evidence with us.
PAID PILOT PLANNED
Pricing is shared with pilot participants.
Joining the list is a request for access. No payment is collected.
REQUEST ACCESS08 · FAQ
Questions, answered plainly.
Does Sonar place trades for me?
No. Sonar Markets provides read-only analytics. It does not execute trades or hold funds.
What makes two markets the same bet?
Verify compares the recorded settlement specifications, including thresholds, observation windows, sources, and fallback rules. A human reviews the evidence before signing a result.
Can I submit arbitrary markets?
No. Current coverage is limited to supported CPI and FOMC contracts on Kalshi and Polymarket. Broader inflation and monetary-policy markets are outside current coverage.
Does VERIFIED always mean equivalent?
No. Read the relation type and qualifications. A signed result can establish equivalence, qualify it with divergence conditions, or show that the markets are not equivalent.
What happens when the rules change?
Current status and rules freshness are shown separately. An earlier signed result remains readable when it is no longer current.
How do I get access?
Joining the list is a request for access. Paid pilot planned. Pricing is shared with pilot participants. No payment is collected.
REQUEST ACCESS