Sonar Markets
SYSTEM_STATUS: NOMINAL · WORKER_HEARTBEAT: 11S

SONAR_MARKETS:
RECEIPTS, NOT PROMISES

Read-only cross-venue prediction-market analytics. Sonar compares founder-verified Kalshi and Polymarket markets, records what the books showed, and reconciles the result after settlement.

JOIN THE FOUNDING LISTVIEW ACCURACY RECORD
PAIR: JULY 2026 FOMC NO RATE CHANGESETTLED
SOURCEKALSHI
TARGETPOLYMARKET
VERIFIED2026-07-14
PAIR: JULY 2026 FOMC RATE DECREASE GREATSETTLED
SOURCEKALSHI
TARGETPOLYMARKET
VERIFIED2026-07-17
PAIR: JULY 2026 HEADLINE CPI MOM AT LEASSETTLED
SOURCEKALSHI
TARGETPOLYMARKET
VERIFIED2026-08-11
VERIFIED_EDGE

Oddpool finds spreads. Sonar determines which spreads deserve your attention.

HISTORICAL / READ-ONLY
HISTORICAL SAMPLE · JULY 2026 CPI · OBSERVED 2026-08-11 23:49ZFRESH · 0.393s
VERIFIED EDGE

July 2026 headline CPI MoM at least 0.1%

OBSERVED EDGE
+0.4¢ (+0.44%)
MAX OBSERVED SIZE
$1,162.53
BOOK AGE
0.393s
LEG A

Kalshi

BUY YES68.0¢
LEG B

Polymarket

BUY NO29.0¢OPEN ON POLYMARKET ↗
OBSERVED-EDGE LEDGER · $500 TIER
Gross Cost
97.0¢
Fees
2.6¢
Est. Slippage
0.0¢
Net Cost
99.6¢
Observed Edge
+0.4¢
EDGE AT OBSERVED SIZE TIERS
$100.00
+0.4¢
$500.00
+0.4¢
$1,000.00
+0.1¢

Hours before the release, raw spreads still existed — but net edge at every size tier was NEGATIVE. Sonar's answer then was: no trade.

WHY IS THIS VERIFIED?
Registry pair
#24060
Verified at
2026-08-11 04:45:00Z
Verified by
FOUNDER
Contract identity
EVENT YES · SOURCE YES · DEADLINE NO · TIMEZONE YES
Rule review
86/100 · MATERIAL RISK
Kalshi settlement source
https://www.bls.gov/cpi/
Polymarket settlement source
unverified
Kalshi resolution window
2026-08-12 12:25:00Z → 2026-08-12 13:56:00Z
Polymarket resolution window
2026-08-12 03:59:00Z → 2026-08-12 03:59:00Z
Kalshi rules hash
c4efbe4ace22456b748bf1281cebeefb64555b28c1aae13e01800004ebb4d94f
Polymarket rules hash
30ef38fa49805dafe45a461b2ea92092cb2d0f6c40624a7fe2cb1d4bed6366b2
Combined rules hash
a8e69970797b84ef43a265b877b47fcc86d44435848a0110d010315e24c1230a
Rules drift
NONE
Book health
QUOTES FRESH · AGE 0.393s · SKEW 0.263s · LIMIT 30.0s

Sonar is read-only. Execution happens on the venues, on your own accounts.

FIELD_RECORD_01

JULY CPI CAPTURE

115 spread ticks recorded through the 2026-08-12 12:30Z release. Stale or one-sided books refused, never reconstructed.

115TICKS
FIELD_RECORD_02

REGISTRY DISCIPLINE

Every pair is read against both venue rulebooks before observation. Rejections stay on the public record.

3/4PAIRS ADMITTED
FIELD_RECORD_03

SETTLEMENT WATCH

Both venue outcomes are admitted independently and reconciled after the fact. Conflicts would latch and display here.

0CONFLICTS

PAIRS_MONITOR.EXE

FOUNDER-VERIFIED REGISTRY · KALSHI ↔ POLYMARKET

PAIRS: 4REJECTED: 1
EVENT_PAIRSTATUSVERIFIEDLIFECYCLEACTION
July 2026 FOMC no rate changeSETTLED2026-07-14
RECEIPTS
July 2026 FOMC 25 bps rate decreaseREJECTED2026-07-17
RECEIPTS
July 2026 FOMC rate decrease greater than 25 bpsSETTLED2026-07-17
RECEIPTS
July 2026 headline CPI MoM at least 0.1%SETTLED2026-08-11
RECEIPTS
FALSE_ALERTS / JULY_CPI
0
SAMPLE115 TICKS
BOOKS_ONE-SIDEDREFUSED, NOT GUESSED
SETTLEMENT_CONFLICTS / ALL_TIME
0
REGISTRY4 PAIRS REVIEWED
REJECTED_IN_REVIEW1
REQUEST_ACCESS

$19/MONTH, LOCKED FOR LIFE.

Founding access is for people who want the evidence terminal when doors open. Seats are limited. Joining this list is a request, not a purchase — no payment is collected.

  • >> Cross-venue radar built on manually verified pairs
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  • >> Founding price remains $19/month while membership stays active
FOUNDING_LIST.REQ
Limited founding seats · no payment collected