These counters come from delivered alerts, recorded outcomes, and venue settlement evidence. They do not represent returns, execution, or a claim that future observations will repeat.
RECORD UPDATED2026-08-12 15:09:26.460Z
Alerts fired3delivered, distinct alerts
Outcomes3recorded alert outcomes
Settled pairs3completed without conflict
Conflicts0venue settlement conflicts
CASE_001 / JULY 2026 CPI
One release, recorded end to end.
SETTLED · VENUES AGREED
01
Verified
The July headline CPI contracts were reviewed as the same one-decimal BLS proposition before observation.
02
Observed
The release path moved from 69.5¢ to one-sided books and then 99.5¢. Sonar recorded 115 ticks, zero collection failures, and zero false alerts through the gap.
03
Settled
Both venue outcomes were admitted independently. The pair closed only after the settlement watcher reconciled them.
SETTLEMENT RECEIPT
Missing database evidence stays unverified. No public value is inferred from page copy.
Registry pair
#24060
Kalshi terminal outcome
YES
Polymarket terminal outcome
YES
Reconciliation state
SAME_SIDE_RESOLVED
Conflict latch
false
METHOD / BOUNDARIES
Alerts count only after at least one delivery succeeds. Outcomes are linked to those delivered alerts. Settled pairs require a completion timestamp and no conflict latch. The public query exposes aggregate counts and one preselected CPI receipt only—never user identities, watchlists, notes, payloads, or private decisions.
